Daily Picks 31.07.2016

SønderjyskE - Lyngby

SønderjyskE won argent endure season, kinda a fluke. They should not, on paper, be a top 4 team, their ability accomplish play off getting top 6. They absent at home 1-2 to AGF in annular 1 and in annular 2 they got a 1-1 draw adjoin AC Horsens, not the abundant alpha they wanted. Lyngby got an answer this season. First bold was abroad adjoin FCK away, a simple 3-0 win for the champions from FCK. In bold 2 they got a 2-2 draw adjoin OB at home.

My Pick: SønderjyskE, DNB @ 1.33

Other Picks: SønderjyskE to win @ 1.8, over 2.5 goals @ 2



FC Midtjylland - Silkeborg IF

FCM is the additional best aggregation in Denmark. Has a lot of abundant players. They started the division at home adjoin Randers with a 2-2 draw, and in annular 2 they went to FC Nordsjælland and in the amount of 20 minutes, from the 68th to the 88th minute, they denticulate 4 goals. SIF got a 0-0 draw abroad adjoin OB, a bold they should accept lost, but OB absent a pen, SIF didn’t appearance much. In annular 2, they were at home adjoin BIF and absent 0-2, afresh outclassed. Can not see annihilation but FCM demography this one. They beat a lot of teams batter for a batter in Denmark.


My Pick: FCM to win @ 1.4

Other Picks: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8, FCM -1.5 @ 2.25


Brøndby IF - AC Horsens

BIF at home. One of the most grounded groups, the new administrator is by all accounts working with max focuses and a 6-0 score after two recreations. Very little to say. ACH recently advanced, I consider them to be the second weakest group in the class, so them having the capacity to play two 1-1 diversions against AaB and SønderjyskE is really a fine begin for them.

My Pick: Brøndby IF to win @ 1.55 


Different Picks: Over 2.5 objectives @ 1.95




AGF - Randers
AGF has won both of their two amateur 2-1. Both amateurs accept been AGF accepting the stronger aggregation overall but accepting a aeon of 10-15 account of arena back, which has amount amazing goals from the opposition. Randers started with affair FCM abroad accepting a 2-2 draw, which is great, in annular 2 they met AaB at home and absent 0-1. This is a bounded derby with added advertising afterwards Randers awash Amini to AGF, and afterwards the auction they went accessible with a lot of analyzer of the player. Amini so far has 1 ambition and 1 abetment in 2 amateurs for his new club, and will attend to shut his above club up. For this bold, I’m traveling a bit acquisitive and acquisitive for the best, just because the amount of the bet is something else.

My Pick: AGF to win @ 2.4

Other Picks: AGF, DNB @ 1.72, over 2.5 goals @ 2.1

The value of value bets

Those who play bet, you often hear the phrase"has a yield value",but the majority of the word"value cases"is used incorrectly and reflects the increased likelihood that gives a player (or tipster) to confirm the prediction.

When considered a value bet bet

To say that a bet is a value bet, should the possibility of confirmation is greater than the probability of performance.

Each performance hides a possibility which is calculated by dividing the 100 in performance. For example, to find the yield 1.80 → 100 / 1.80 = 55.5% chance.

In the table below are indicative of some matches απόδοσης-πιθανότητων.

Απόδοση	Πιθανότητα		Απόδοση	Πιθανότητα
1.10	90.9%		2.50	40.0%
1.20	83.3%		2.80	35.7%
1.40	71.4%		3.00	33.3%
1.60	62.5%		3.50	28.5%
1.80	55.5%		4.50	22.2%
2.00	50.0%		5.00	20.0%
2.20	45.4%		6.00	16.6%

How to pull yourself the odds

If you know a championship, you have before you look at the odds to consider the possibilities for confirmation of each point in a match.For example, study the match Real Madrid - Barcelona and believe that the confirmation rate is 50% in the "1", 30% on the "X" and 20%. "2"

then Calculate the law in your opinion odds ( 100 / share).

According to your assessment, the odds would be:  2.00 - 3.33 - 5.00.

If you find the victory of Real at 1.80, meaning that, in your opinion has no value. If the but found in 2.20 or 2.30 then the point value.Professional punters can thus play a fair bet, avoiding the rake.

How earn companies the odds

The odds compilers companies do exactly what we described above. In the statistical model, help evaluate the likely confirmation of each item. Depending on external factors, such as injuries, weather, reports the event (eg unpaid players, etc.) form the odds. Then the odds are expressed in yields and before going to the "air" removed the percentage of the rake.

Value betting Strategy

'If want to see the bet seriously, it is important to assess the return based on probabilities.This way, you will know when a favorite is overvalued or undervalued, but the process is anything but simple is. You must know very well some teams or leagues and to concentrate on them.

Basic parameters you should take into consideration:

• Team Form
• On/Off Stats
• Background
• Injuries / Absence
• Special conditions (motivated team players unpaid, group climate, etc.)
• Weather

Tips value bet

• the big favorite rarely gives  bets,value because the bookies know that the mass of players will bet on them.

• you have to have great patience in the game and to stay faithful your strategy. Remember, venison odd!

• You have to concentrate in a few tournaments and learn them well.
• Often, opportunities arise for companies who make initial yields several (opinionated bookmakers) days before the event or a few minutes before the race starts.

• Do not forget that if is a bet value bettor not, is purely our personal evaluation and can we do wrong and not the bookmakers performance.

Value bet and Kelly System

After finding a good value bet, you should decide the amount you bet. There are several criteria that will help you decide your stake and to help you place your bets on a secure system.

The John L. Kelly is a famous name in the gaming industry.

H theory and the guy who applied will help you find the maximum stake for your bet if properly determine the odds for the outcome of an event.

the formula is as

follows: a = P - (1-  

where a = advantage (advantage) -> represents the percentage the total pot (stock) to bet on this event

where P = probability (probability)->probability (in decimals) for the outcome of an event (subjective view)

Application Kelly system

If you find an event with 2.00 and believe that performance the probability amounts to 55%, o Kelly formula can optimize your stake in this. Looking in the formula above, R in the example is equal to 55/100 = 0.55. The result of our calculation gives A = 0.1. This means you have to bet on this event 10% of your inventory.

If you are most optimistic in the analysis of probability (eg 60% load, while the correct probability was 55%) then it will simply lose more money! This is due to the fact that the guy Kelly outputs the optimal bet if you know your forecast accuracy. If you are confident you will lose money, and if you are very pessimistic will win money, but less than you would win with the right bets.

Finally,remember that to have long-term gain, you must have sufficient posts assessments, reading games and bet at odds of value.

The attitude of the gambler

The bet is a direct and easily accessible game for one deal. Nowadays, especially, it can play a bet not seem anything strange or complicated and more and more decide to deal with it.

But although the understanding one way in which the game is played is not something difficult, and that in the age of instant access to information, anyone can become an "expert" in a particular sector, the human factor comes to put some obstacles. Specifically, the player's psychology, as is customary to refer all the behaviors that punters adopt.

For someone to play bet successfully must understand that some things in his behavior are normal to get in the way, so be recognize, to understand and to overcome. an important obstacle in this endeavor can stand cognitive biases (cognitive biases), the player can have.

We can say in a simple way that the mind us some playing games and such may influence the decision-making process. Cognitive psychology is one of the branches of psychology, which can help with these issues and to understand some things that apply to day involvement in a bet. One of these cognitive biases, which finds direct application in the bet is framing (framing effect) and the influence it has.

the phenomenon of framing is a cognitive bias in which people react to a particular choice in a different way, depending on whether this option is presented as gain or loss.

In short, we do not see things exactly as they are, but as they seem at first not so detailed look.

You can not imagine how frequent is the application of the bias to bet and how it affects us is to choose a group or not. It would be nice to see all this with an example, which may somewhat simplify things.

Let us consider, then, that Chelsea play Arsenal and Chelsea are lacking Diego Costa, Fabrega, and Terry. It is obvious that the betting companies will change the odds, but will remain in the role of underdog Arsenal. However, the odds for Chelsea will be much better with regard to whether these players were available. Many players may snatched the opportunity to choose Arsenal, mainly due to these Chelsea absenteeism.

And I did it without very much analysis and in terms of value, this bet might be reasonable if the odds for Arsenal was very high, but this is not very likely, as companies adapt to the data.

this situation clearly falls under the effect of framing. If analyzed a little more, and takes a look at the players who will replace the absent, we would see clearly that Chelsea will have a very good line-up. Just think that Drogba, Oscar or Willis and Ivanovic are potential replacements for absent. Players who will play key almost all teams in the league.

When any game you play, whether it is bet or something else, always trying to find a small detail that will give you the edge over your opponent, in this of betting company. Obviously Chelsea loses in scoring, assists and solid defensive presence, but replacements are so good, you do not have too much advantage if you choose Arsenal in the example.

It is very important when analyzing a game by betting standpoint, staying calm and focused, as you have to compare the odds with other data, to be included in the bet selection process. the tranquility and meditation will help you overcome any games going to play you your mind.

If you get the general idea the above example and apply it to your own betting choices are very likely to find yourself in this situation, to think that it has an advantage when in fact it has not.

This was a classic example of cognitive bias on the bet and can employ players. In the future, we will refer to other cognitive biases that play a role many times bet, so you can recognize and overcome them.

Champions League 3rd qualifying round predictions

• Shakhtar-Young Boys:  over 2,5 goals
• BATE Borisov-Dundalk: under 3,5 goals
• Partizani-Red Bull Salzburg: under 2,5 goals

Today is Champions League day. I 've ordered to you my very best predictions about.
Bet only 2% of your bankroll to any bet and good luck to everyone.

Secrets of live betting the NBA

In the following text, we will deal extensively with what to watch a "player" when he decides to play a live bet on the basketball game. We will also mention the "skills" you would need to take with him, like knowledge, thrown before the "battle" of live betting in "parquet" and various "data" to be careful. To induct you best there will be detailed examples.

The good preparation is half the battle

Surely when we begin to play a bet must be good 'read'. Equally well "Read" But we need to be and when we decide to play a bet during a basketball game. We start then:

Image of how the teams that want to bet

Some groups sluggish start in the match and raise sharply the performance the next.Unlike football, basketball if stay 10 or 15 points behind in the match a group, or 2 quarters (the NBA) is more than enough to turn the game and get it by far. Indicative your quote examples of the Pacers and Raptors (NBA), 2 teams playing defenses "kinked" Bones in the second halves of their confrontations, pushing, while dramatically their performance reaching easily (or at least so they seem) in twists or on large wins. So for example, if in a game of the Pacers, the Handicap Half time is at -5.5 to -10.5, a bet for them is not a bad choice. Of course it depends on the opponent.

The same (in reverse) applies to groups that stay by forces or do good second place. Magic, Bucks, Jazz, 76ers are some of the groups belonging to this category while in this list and enter the groups were games last night and seem to have entered "slapdash" in the first minutes. It's so demanding a match 2 and 2.5 hours, sometimes tiredness comes on the court.

The statistics and the Average scoring (defensive and offensive) teams

This course comes in line with the evolution of the games (we'll talk about this below) but always helps us during the race. But what is meant by "poet"? An example is yesterday's match between Pelicans and Mavericks. Two teams who score around 100p. Avg and the line before the start were at 198.5. But the score of the first half was 40-42, with the line to be demolished at 176.5. The over176,5 is a "gift" that we play because we are talking about two very good teams in the attack. Of course, the second part, the players, and the 2 groups were rhythm and the game ended 110-107.

The same applies to the case "put everything" in the first part,and a match with the original line eg at 205.5 jumps to 225.5 and 230.5. Certainly (with few exceptions), they will not continue to score at the same rate groups based on statistics, and other parameters that will be mentioned below. Exemplifies the showdown Clippers - Lakers yesterday that an initial line at 208.5, arrived sometime in 234.5. Final result 123-87 and filled played those under 234,5.

Armed reading goes on careful observation of the race.

Good in "reading" but if we are talking about LIVE betting must look that "goes" match before "take" a bet and give the basis of the following  Under

below:in games with big differences in half or at the end of the third period

This is primarily because, as is normal, if there is interest in the game, from a point onwards, coaches 2 groups using "bad"players,who either untargeted shot or several errors "throwing" constantly the line. If the line has climbed too far above the original better to play it under the half or even at the beginning of the third period, if we see that the shoot began to NOT come in.

Over a game with a very low score in half

This course should 'know' and groups before (as mention above). In a game Bulls - Bucks, for example, is not at all unlikely that the line to drop Mr another second place. Also, it is advisable to wait for 1 to 2 minutes at the beginning of the third period,to see if the players find a rhythm before backing. Why can continue with the same, badly hit rate percentages and not to "come"  Under

bet.the fourth year in a match is the derby or "closed"

This is mainly due to the fact that we will see a number of defenses, the effort teams to reach the victory. Again, of course, we must have a picture of how the two teams. Unique "enemy" in this bet to get the difference in such a number, the team behind in the score, to resort to foul the last seconds.

A bet on the favorite in the first period

is usually the "big" favorite of the games taking a handicap of -2.5 or -1.5 for victory in the first period. A quick 6-0 underdog at 2/1 minutes will carry 1.5 to 2.5 on the favorite. By then auras of favorites (especially plays at home) we can "play" this bet. Eg a fast 6-0 of Bucks in Miami will take a 1.5 in Miami. So there we can bet, as they are given (in most cases) that the strong team will quickly return to the game after it has the opportunity, while we have the safety of 1.5 to 2.5 points in the event that drew the first period, if the underdog continues to appear competitive.

Bet on favorite when the game started wrong

Something similar to the above .. starts a wrong match (the can and in time) and transferred + to favorite. Whenever it is able to turn the game (and always in line with that of the game go) bet on "possible."

We play with the "momentum"

Unlike football, the momentum in basketball, can itself turn a match? Here the good cases are the games at home, where the home team is behind on the score and has a large + handicap over him. When you enter a few "big" baskets and starts to go down the field,it is advisable to take in 'early' stage handicap, before returning for a good match and lost the opportunity. Yesterday we had two examples in Raptors games - Nets and Wizzards - Rockets, where the comeback in the 3rd and 4th quarter respectively, was done in record time (with the impetus and the public) and the Raptors points 6.5 and 19.5 Wizzards They were "treasures" for whoever played.

Using and mathematical logic

the method that we use mainly for under and over the years, always bearing in mind the statistics of the two groups, their form and the tactics. Before I explain with an example of my mind to mention a tip. The best time to use this particular tactic, is the sixth-fourth (counting downwards) minute period on the under and from ninth to seventh minute for over the period. And closing will ask you two examples - questions ... Pacers - Wizzards / 1st period. / 12-12 / 6'15 »/ lineWhat will play ;; I think ... It's half and should put others so two points to overcome. The Pacers playing good defense, Wizzards is not of the most stable teams in scoring. Therefore………. 76ers - Blazzers / second approx. / 12-12 / 6'15 »/ lineWhat will play ;;; I think .. It is halfway through and has put so many others five points to overcome. Both teams did not play good defenses. The Blazzers have good perimeter shooting, the 76ers «get" too many shots in their games and, finally, and the two are youth groups that run the stadium. So .........

I hope, though fly rise enough, my tips are informative. I'm not saying that what I wrote above will go 100% cash (I wish I was) but this is my way of thinking, who has led several times in hits. You will also notice that in my examples use specific groups for the simple reason that observe with reverence the first piece of my advice. The know too well and I watch "closely." It is very basic piece of playing, ONLY, the teams know. Finally, mainly on the track of the "psychology" of a player involved in the live betting I did not write anything, but has caught the user mikropony. You can take a look at the text by clicking here.

Thanks for your attention ... ..

Bankroll Management

On the internet, there are hundreds of daily races for betting, but requires patience and the right strategy to get success. It may sound contradictory to you, but to win more bets than you lose that does not necessarily translate into profit.Many other factors come mainly from the management of capital and player discipline or lack of, significantly affects your game.

The capital management

By managing capital or bankroll management, we mean all those rules to be followed by a player bet that:

• to protect the capital from large losses
• to maximize his profit

the main factors underlying a proper capital management system are as follows:

• the ratio of capital size and stake height
• the wagering relationship and gameplay (bet on singles or accumulator)

The two factors do not operate independently.Instead, they interact in such a way that the non-compliance to the maximum extent creates problems (mainly profit maximization problems as will be explained below)

Principal (dealer or starter)

The initial capital must be determined before the start of the betting period.To do this you must know how much money is available for betting for the entire season.

The creation of the fund should not affect your personal life. Thus, when calculating the capital must figure FIRST your personal needs and the surplus thereof being offered for betting.

The two schools of bankroll management

• In accordance with the classical school management capital, available capital, divided by the number 4 and always the Chapter ¼ available. To start and resume tournament bouts to ¼ is limited in miso.

• The newest leisure capital management distributes the available capital in two straight parts, without any restriction during the betting period.

Useful tips for online betting

• See the available capital as an investment.It is the money you have set for your hobby and certainly do not want to lose quickly
• Classical leisure requires abstention from gambling when reset every ¼
• Determine goals.As important is the definition of capital, another so to know what to do if you win money. It will increase your capital or use them for personal needs?
• A player who has a great success rate in forecasts can come out a winner if properly managed the chapter,while
• a player who has a great success rate in the forecasts of other not properly manages its capital dEFINITELY will come out a loser

To bet

the most widespread and mainly the most appropriate method of betting is the method fixed betting.According to this method should place a stable rateof your capital per bet.Each time your capital doubled, doubled the bet, each time your capital is halved, is correspondingly reduced and your bet.

To establish the bet must test interaction of the triptych:

Stake Size - Available capital - how to play

bet on singles: Bet the 5-7.5% of your available capital.

Stakemultiples:Bet the 1-2.5% of your available capital.

As understood how you play and the available capital directly affects the how betting. The verification frequency of single recipients is larger than that of the accumulator. For this reason, it is larger and the betting.

Useful Tips for Betting on Internet

• Forget the expression 'bet you resist my pocket'. Plus forcing bet THAT YOU PERMITTED YOUR CAPITAL.
• Keep a record of your bets. Regularly study it. Perhaps locate bets are not verified as often as you think.
• One trick that different the smart players is doubling or tripling of the bet when you consider that a bet has many chances verification (eg that Ace is very strong).
• Do not bet money that make you feel uncomfortable. Avoid such bets, even if this is your capital.

Finally,you need to approach betting like a business and keep the feeling off, as much as possible. It would not be far fetched to say that the management of emotions is the most important difference between success and failure.The long-term success absolutely depends on it, even more than winning bets.

Finally,manage your capital with the objective of long-term gain. It is important not to get carried away by the kathimerin'a results. The bet may be profitable over time, but not necessarily on a daily basis. The occasional loss should not be something that will affect you. The equilibrium and emotions management will contribute significantly to long-term health of your funds !!