The value of value bets

Those who play bet, you often hear the phrase"has a yield value",but the majority of the word"value cases"is used incorrectly and reflects the increased likelihood that gives a player (or tipster) to confirm the prediction.

When considered a value bet bet

To say that a bet is a value bet, should the possibility of confirmation is greater than the probability of performance.

Each performance hides a possibility which is calculated by dividing the 100 in performance. For example, to find the yield 1.80 → 100 / 1.80 = 55.5% chance.

In the table below are indicative of some matches απόδοσης-πιθανότητων.

Απόδοση	Πιθανότητα		Απόδοση	Πιθανότητα
1.10	90.9%		2.50	40.0%
1.20	83.3%		2.80	35.7%
1.40	71.4%		3.00	33.3%
1.60	62.5%		3.50	28.5%
1.80	55.5%		4.50	22.2%
2.00	50.0%		5.00	20.0%
2.20	45.4%		6.00	16.6%

How to pull yourself the odds

If you know a championship, you have before you look at the odds to consider the possibilities for confirmation of each point in a match.For example, study the match Real Madrid - Barcelona and believe that the confirmation rate is 50% in the "1", 30% on the "X" and 20%. "2"

then Calculate the law in your opinion odds ( 100 / share).

According to your assessment, the odds would be:  2.00 - 3.33 - 5.00.

If you find the victory of Real at 1.80, meaning that, in your opinion has no value. If the but found in 2.20 or 2.30 then the point value.Professional punters can thus play a fair bet, avoiding the rake.

How earn companies the odds

The odds compilers companies do exactly what we described above. In the statistical model, help evaluate the likely confirmation of each item. Depending on external factors, such as injuries, weather, reports the event (eg unpaid players, etc.) form the odds. Then the odds are expressed in yields and before going to the "air" removed the percentage of the rake.

Value betting Strategy

'If want to see the bet seriously, it is important to assess the return based on probabilities.This way, you will know when a favorite is overvalued or undervalued, but the process is anything but simple is. You must know very well some teams or leagues and to concentrate on them.

Basic parameters you should take into consideration:

• Team Form
• On/Off Stats
• Background
• Injuries / Absence
• Special conditions (motivated team players unpaid, group climate, etc.)
• Weather

Tips value bet

• the big favorite rarely gives  bets,value because the bookies know that the mass of players will bet on them.

• you have to have great patience in the game and to stay faithful your strategy. Remember, venison odd!

• You have to concentrate in a few tournaments and learn them well.
• Often, opportunities arise for companies who make initial yields several (opinionated bookmakers) days before the event or a few minutes before the race starts.

• Do not forget that if is a bet value bettor not, is purely our personal evaluation and can we do wrong and not the bookmakers performance.

Value bet and Kelly System

After finding a good value bet, you should decide the amount you bet. There are several criteria that will help you decide your stake and to help you place your bets on a secure system.

The John L. Kelly is a famous name in the gaming industry.

H theory and the guy who applied will help you find the maximum stake for your bet if properly determine the odds for the outcome of an event.

the formula is as

follows: a = P - (1-  

where a = advantage (advantage) -> represents the percentage the total pot (stock) to bet on this event

where P = probability (probability)->probability (in decimals) for the outcome of an event (subjective view)

Application Kelly system

If you find an event with 2.00 and believe that performance the probability amounts to 55%, o Kelly formula can optimize your stake in this. Looking in the formula above, R in the example is equal to 55/100 = 0.55. The result of our calculation gives A = 0.1. This means you have to bet on this event 10% of your inventory.

If you are most optimistic in the analysis of probability (eg 60% load, while the correct probability was 55%) then it will simply lose more money! This is due to the fact that the guy Kelly outputs the optimal bet if you know your forecast accuracy. If you are confident you will lose money, and if you are very pessimistic will win money, but less than you would win with the right bets.

Finally,remember that to have long-term gain, you must have sufficient posts assessments, reading games and bet at odds of value.